Recently, Hunting.com "Goodbye, China's electronics manufacturing 40 years of super boom cycle - winter is coming! "Reporting and bitcoin flash collapse, the news of mining machine sales made the entire electronics industry completely feel the chill of winter in 2018, although in recent years, experts have pointed out that the winter of the domestic electronics manufacturing industry is approaching, but this time As the article said, it is beyond the Southeast Asian financial crisis and the global crisis to power China's electronics manufacturing industry. This article combines other relevant online reports to talk about the current trend.
1. Macro level: national policy tightening + trade war plus tax The most intuitive feeling brought to the security industry is that the “de-leverage” policy affects domestic demand, and the Sino-US trade dispute brings the risk of the expansion of domestic manufacturers' overseas markets. However, for the entire electronics industry, after experiencing a round of environmental liquidation, deleveraging, and squeeze-up in the first half of the year, the real economy and financial markets have been crushed, bankruptcy and bankruptcy have broken out, and manufacturing orders have continued to decrease. Real estate is also struggling to support. Coupled with this trade friction that is full of uncertainties, it can be concluded that the future economic growth will continue to decline, meaning that everyone's days will be difficult, the difference is only the problem of more or less. "To live" is no longer self-humiliation, but reality. In recent years, European, Japanese, Japanese and Korean electronics manufacturing companies have repeatedly "escaped from the tide", according to experts, in the 2008 financial crisis, the manufacturing industry in the most difficult time when the net profit is still around 12% to 15%, but The annual net profit is only 1% to 3%, which can be said to be as thin as a blade. 2. The semiconductor industry is on thin ice "Goodbye, China's electronics manufacturing 40 years of super boom cycle - winter is coming! "The article mentioned that the global analog chip downstream application changes, the overall demand is declining. No matter whether it is consumer, car or industry, there is no obvious excitement. This is the reality of the supply chain. At the same time, in the IC analysis company ICInsights 2018 global top 15 semiconductor companies, the semiconductor industry winners are basically concentrated in the field of storage and CPU + GPU and other main control chips. The cruel truth is that if the price of memory chips and camera chips is dropped, the growth of the global semiconductor industry is likely to be negative in 2018. 3. The bubble of the Internet of Things, the next one is artificial intelligence ? Although the industry is optimistic about the future development of the Internet of Things is not a year or two, but the current Internet of Things application is still in the primary stage, the connection of things to rise to the stage of physical and intellectual intelligence, there are too many things to break through. Taking smart home as an example, the current sales volume and user reputation have not reached expectations, while enterprise-level applications are beginning to be deployed, but the cycle is not short and the cost is relatively large. In the current economic environment, It is difficult. This is why it is difficult to see the giants of the Internet of Things or the giants of smart homes. The article pointed out that at the chip level of the current Internet of Things, there are only a few sensors or communication modules, and other underlying and operating systems are not innovators. Similar to artificial intelligence. Although security is one of the best scenarios for artificial intelligence landing, in the strict sense, the current AI application is essentially an upgraded version of intelligent analysis , which may not reach 10% of artificial intelligence, but it is Billions of dollars in financing will not be 100% good for startups. If the valuation is too high, there will be pressure to continue financing. After all, the current artificial intelligence is still in the stage of weak artificial intelligence, and it is just getting started. "The bubble is hard to determine unless it breaks." 4. The collapse of the stock market and manufacturing income fell Spring River plumbing duck prophet, Europe and the United States stock market began in October, STMicroelectronics, NVIDIA, Xilinx , Intel and other well-known chip stocks gradually rushed from high positions. In China, although the chip industry has received strong support from the state, the stock market trend of most chip companies is not outstanding. Under the influence of weak global economic growth, high-end domestic low-end manufacturing, and a ten-year economic crisis, the good days of manufacturing may be ending or coming to an end, but the industrial law of manufacturing is such. Although some companies have begun to learn about the Internet and continue to get funding by telling stories, this is not in line with the logic of industrial development, and it will be doomed to failure. In the next few years, exports and investment will continue to decline, destocking activities will continue to increase, companies should be in the transaction, to avoid bad debts is the current thinking. Perhaps, after the ebb tide, I know who is swimming in the nude, and who knows who wears cotton trousers in the cold winter. (Part of this article comes from "Goodbye, China's electronics manufacturing 40 years of super boom cycle - winter is coming" and "electronic components winter is coming? Careful bad debts and inventory")