1 new - a new generation of intelligent transportation system
This year is the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up. At the same time, it is officially recognized as the 20th anniversary of the development of China's intelligent transportation. At this time, the node talks about the new generation of intelligent transportation system. What is new in the new generation of intelligent transportation systems? In simple terms, it is the ability to sense and collect information, the ability to process and calculate data, and the ability to coordinate and make decisions.
Perception and information collection capabilities: Vehicle-to-road collaboration technology, transforming vehicles from a closed black box into a transparent data box, and truly making the road a perceptible digital infrastructure, is the most critical change affecting smart transportation in the future. A series of changes in smart transportation in the future are mostly around this. At this stage, the role of intelligent video surveillance technology in traffic management has reached a peak, and the future will still be the main means of sensing and information collection, but the first name will be given to the road.
The ability to process and calculate data: Big data and cloud computing have proven the value of technology, and continue to deepen, edge computing is valued, cloud-edge combination is considered to be the mainstream of future development.
Collaboration and decision-making ability: Collaboration is not only the coordination between vehicles and vehicles, but also the coordination between vehicles and traffic management systems, roads and traffic management systems, vehicles and information service systems, and coordination among management departments; Decision making is based on these collaboratively built and automatically generated expert solutions, and artificial intelligence will play an important role.
Of course, the development of communication transmission and mobile Internet is also an important part of supporting the formation of a new generation of intelligent transportation systems, and the impact of 5G has begun to appear.
In the field of subdivision, concepts and frameworks have been proposed, including a new generation of traffic signal control systems, a new generation of traffic management integrated command systems, a new generation of traffic control networks, a new generation of road-to-road coordination systems, etc., as well as intelligent roads and intelligence that are highly anticipated. Driving, etc.
The next generation of intelligent transportation systems should be integrated and coordinated. Just as we believe that in the future, the public video resources of the entire city will be integrated into a unified video resource pool. All future traffic factors may be digitized and informatized. Then, they will be brought together to a unified urban traffic command center, and the now separate systems such as public transportation, transportation , road transportation, road administration, and parking will work in the future with the support of a data center.
The new generation of intelligent transportation systems currently only has a framework and direction. More architectures need to be explored and perfected, even in the next 30 to 50 years, but as long as the traffic vehicles have not undergone major changes, the future The transportation system, we can now touch the skeleton.
2 cold - growth and dispersion
The overall economic situation in 2018 is not very optimistic because of Sino-US trade wars and the effects of macro-controls such as supply-side reforms and deleveraging. Corporate layoffs, narrowing of social recruitment, local governments are strictly controlled debt ratios, capital market financing is cold and so on.
As far as the capital market is concerned, it is not bleak, but compared with previous years, there are some clouds: According to the VC/PE statistics report of the China Research Institute, the scale of funds raised in the first half of 2017 reached US$134.2 billion, and this figure is on 2018. The half year was only 34.1 billion US dollars - a year-on-year decline of 74.59%. In 2018, the IPO meeting rate and the number of listed companies have plummeted. In addition, according to statistics, in 2018, a total of 200 sub-enterprises faced the test of the audit committee, and finally 111 had a meeting, 59 were rejected, 20 were canceled, 10 were suspended, and the rate was only 58.4% after deferring the voting company. , creating a new low in the last decade. The data shows that the actual IPO funds raised this year totaled 137.5 billion yuan, down 40% from last year. As of early December 2018, only 103 companies were listed, which was much lower than last year's 438, and 195 companies withdrew their IPO applications. Obviously, in the past years, high-profile mobile Internet ventures, artificial intelligence, smart travel and other ventures, if you can not find application scenarios to complete self-hematopoietic, survival will become very difficult.
Back to the intelligent transportation industry, ITS114's statistics show that urban intelligent transportation still maintains a certain speed of growth. In the first three quarters, it still maintained an overall growth rate of 18%, and the number of projects increased by more than 25%. Of course, there are more projects, but they are also scattered.
Since the market as a whole still has growth, why come "winter"? As far as the Saiwen Transportation Network is concerned, the first is because of the smashing and squeezing of Internet giants such as Ali, Baidu and Didi, and the number of local SMEs entering the new ones. Second, the demand for the intelligent transportation market has remained unchanged for many years. The demand for video products accounted for more than half of the total market. The suppliers of products such as Haida Yuke continued to benefit, but the integrators were forced to cut the meat. Third, although the project continued, the government dragged down the funds, resulting in limited development of the entire industry chain.
In fact, as Xu He always said, this industry has its own products and technologies, but one or two hundred, concentrated in the fields of signal, video, communication, vehicle and command platform, when the industry chain is downstream (Party A, Integrators are dragging their money, and downstream companies will be affected regardless of whether they have Party A’s relationship.
ITS114 believes that the intelligent transportation industry itself has not entered the winter stage, the market is still growing, the demand is still upgrading, and the borders are becoming more and more blurred. However, traditional intelligent transportation enterprises have been affected, but in the long run, it may not be Good thing. Moreover, in the economic downturn, countries often introduce relevant policies to stimulate infrastructure construction. For example, the Ministry of Finance said at the 2018 financial work conference that local special debts should be significantly increased in 2019; in addition, urban rail transit projects approved in the second half of 2018. The investment amount exceeded 350 billion yuan; the National Development and Reform Commission said in September that it would increase the strength of the infrastructure sector to make up short-term efforts and stabilize investment. Transportation is an important part of infrastructure construction. Although intelligent transportation accounts for a small proportion, it is also expected to continue to grow.
3 murder - road coordination
In the article "When we talk about the new generation of intelligent transportation systems, what are we talking about" after we participated in the China Intelligent Transportation Annual Conference in November, we wrote a sentence, "For traditional intelligent transportation, the introduction The biggest variable should be the vehicle road coordination technology, which will profoundly affect the development of intelligent transportation systems.” That is to say, vehicle road coordination, intelligent video, 5G communication, big data, artificial intelligence, etc. constitute the technology of the new generation intelligent transportation system. cornerstone.
As far as sensing is concerned, vehicle-to-road collaboration is the only technology that can achieve multi-directional interaction. Vehicles, vehicles, vehicles and systems, together with high-precision positioning and 5G communication, can achieve more accurate perception. Vehicle and road coordination and automotive electronic identification, video, radar, etc., are the next-generation integrated integrated roadside facilities, realizing holographic perception through edge calculation or cloud edge combination.
Since the beginning of this year, with Alibaba Cloud, Baidu, Huawei, China Mobile, Datang Telecom and other aspects of car and road coordination, the exposure of car and road synergy has increased dramatically, and it is considered that after smart driving is frustrated on the “cycling intelligence” route, Another "bright" technical route for smart driving cars. Not only enterprises, but also local governments have invested heavily in building intelligent network driving test bases, or building open test roads. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Transport, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have also introduced relevant policies to support vehicle-assisted technology. application. This provides a good development condition for the application demonstration of the road coordination.
In 2018, Wuxi's smart car road synergy application displayed more than 30 real-vehicle use cases at 240 intersections, and became the world's first urban-level demonstration project to scale the application of LTE-V technology. Therefore, the application of Wuxi's vehicles and roads, the future should be more functions of the demonstration application, covering more user groups, truly become the intelligent assistant and security of the driving process, not just limited to demonstration vehicles.
From functional demonstration to establishing business model and management operation mode, the road ahead of vehicle-based collaborative application is long. As a multi-directional interactive sensing device, future applications must be diversified, cross-industry, cross-administrative, and technically perfect. It's not a problem, but the construction and operation management model determines the future development of the technology. The V2X is only used for workshop communication and formation driving.
Especially for the traditional intelligent transportation enterprises that have entered the "winter", the integrated integrated roadside facilities are likely to be a new product track, similar to the current hot wisdom poles. When Zhang Pengguo was interviewed by peers, he once thought that smart bars/street lights and electronic license plates would be the main products of future traffic. The reason why the smart bars are used is similar to the “flow portal” of mobile internet. , grab it is to earn.
4 heat - traffic brain
2017 is the beginning of the "brain" fever, which should be considered an "outbreak" in 2018. The most important thing is that the traffic brain is no longer the "brain" of Alibaba Cloud, but the "brain" that the industry can learn from/imitation. Although the concept comes from Alibaba Cloud, the first demonstration landed in Hangzhou, but there are already many enterprises and The city follows up. In the past two years, the news reports of the traffic integrated command system or the integrated traffic operation command system under the name of “brain” include Xiamen, Jinan, Zhangzhou, Zhuhai, Haikou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Xuancheng, etc. Under the work, there are Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing Haidian and so on.
In fact, cities with well-established public security traffic integrated command systems or integrated traffic operation command systems can use their own system as the word “traffic brain”, which is capable of collecting holographic traffic data from multiple fields. Data processing analysis and cross-matching computing capabilities, with the ability to automatically generate solutions and optimize the system. The most important thing is that the former, in order to obtain holographic traffic data in multiple fields, there must be a large number of front-end intelligent sensing acquisition devices that work stably. The “brain” transformation of the traditional intelligent transportation system, personally thinks that the structure is the “data sharing layer” or the “data resource pool”. Only the formation of this level can support the intelligence of the business systems and the overall situation. optimization.
Although the industry has not yet said that intelligent transportation, it must mention the "brain", but there are already many similar concepts. The impact of "brains" on the construction and operation of intelligent transportation projects is definitely more than harm. Zhang Pengguo, president of Yushi Technology, said in an interview: "The ecology of Chinese application software is wrong. There are three major ills in the field of application software in China: first The customer does not accept the license (copyright license); the second customer does not accept the annual fee; the third customer only asks for the demand without adding money, and the delivery period delays the return of the loan. How many global leading hardware companies have risen in China in the past ten years? How is the growth of the world's leading software companies in this decade?"
Alibaba Cloud, Baidu, Ping An and other giants push the "brain", which will increase the selling and quotation of platform software and operation optimization to a certain extent. The increased demand will be subject to additional fees. As for the payment, it is necessary to analyze the specific situation.
Chen Caijun, executive vice president of Yinjiang Co., said in an interview with the media that “after going through the transformation of the industry from 'traffic management' to 'traffic management' and the upgrading of technology, Yinjiang used to be a project-based project and slowly changed to Providing product line solutions as the mainstay, as a partner of Alibaba Cloud Hangzhou City Brain, Yinjiang shares also launched the "traffic brain", proposed the "three yuan" governance concept, cooperation in a "city brain" The partners stand out.
The "brain" heat should last for a while. In fact, brain heat is also an inevitable outcome of many technologies such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and intelligent video analysis. In the transportation sector, the “brain” means more outfield equipment upgrades, as well as more platform software and operational optimization investments.
5 bitterness - wisdom travel
Travel is a key area of work under the mobile Internet frenzy, including online car rental, time-sharing, shared bicycles, shared parking, one-stop travel and so on. However, in 2018, it was obviously not friendly to smart travel. The representative companies that rented cars, leased time, and shared bicycles were in trouble. Moby was acquired, OFO and time-scheduled road songs were killed, and so on. The problem has been rectifying and shrinking, and it has not been high-profile in the past.
But besides that, we are seeing more and more car manufacturers entering the field of travel. According to statistics, there are more than 16 independent auto brands that share the travel business, including Mercedes-Benz Car2Go and BMW's Drive Now. The two businesses in these brands started earlier, and in early 2018, BMW Drive Now and Mercedes-Benz Car2Go announced the merger. BMW, Ford, Volkswagen, Geely and other car manufacturers have launched their own smart travel brands, the latter should be Cao Cao special car, in addition to the local intelligent travel brands such as the first car about car, such as travel, stand out, the first car has become a national brand .
In terms of one-stop travel, in October, the Shenzhen Municipal Communications Commission took the lead in launching the Smart Travel-as-a-Service MaaS project and released the “Mc. Travel” test version; Gaode has access to a variety of travel modes, which can be directly traveled by car or bicycle. There are also a variety of route planning methods for travel mode, but at present it is not possible to provide "one-book travel payment". Overall, one-stop travel has just started in China, and ITS114 is more optimistic about platforms with user and technology advantages, such as Gao De and Didi. The traffic departments of Shenzhen and Guangzhou are also pushing MAAS. They have comparative advantages in resource integration and are the development route for the government to promote one-stop travel. It is also worth looking forward to.
The entire smart travel industry, especially the Internet + travel, has been somewhat bitter in 2018, and the channels for obtaining financing by traffic are no longer smooth. It is increasingly impossible to burn money, but it is good enough in this market. So there is plenty of room, but only if you can find a business model of self-hematopoiesis.
6 Change - Industry Capital Events
Although there are more and more players in the intelligent transportation industry, most of the newly entered small and medium-sized players belong to the haystack rabbits, and there are not many projects. For this industry with low threshold, more people come to eat, the original players. You have to eat a few mouthfuls. In the past two years, the traditional intelligent transportation industry has almost no favor in the capital market. In 2018, even the enterprises that landed in the new three boards are rare. The enterprises that have the ability to separate IPOs are also among the most promising. The most promising Hisense network technology and Zhejiang University At present, there is no information about IPO transmission in the central control and electric science. Zhengzhou Tianmai, Ruiming Technology and Sanlian Transportation submitted IPO materials. Some Lingyu submitted some materials, and Huaxia Hi-Tech listed the new three boards. Zhongke Tongda, Shengshi Technology, etc. have reportedly planned to go public, but they have not heard it anymore.
However, the lack of IPO does not mean that there is no capital action in this industry. Traditional intelligent transportation companies such as ZTEsoft, ZTE Intelligent Transportation, Jerry Electronics, and Electric Intelligence have breakthrough capital events.
It may be that the requirements for independent listing are relatively high and the time is long. Traditional intelligent transportation companies have been listed or acquired by mergers and acquisitions. It is not uncommon in recent years. Bokang Intelligent, Yushi Technology, Yicheng Information, Zhongxing Zhilian, Jie This is true for Rui Electronics, etc., and the 30% share of the Electronics Division’s sales do not know if it is also planned.
Start-ups or the second group in the market are often chosen, and they are more obvious in terms of smart logistics, smart parking, and smart travel. In the field of smart logistics, Man Gang, Yiliu Technology, Zhongjiao Xing Road, etc. are Ali investment, G7 has Tencent investment; in the smart parking field, stop simple, Jieshun Technology is Ali investment, and Coto is Tencent Investment. ... ITS114 did not go further to statistics, but in fact, as long as it is related to Internet entrepreneurship, the choice of station team is natural, even if it is not active. Like Huawei, which does not invest, does not touch the giants of projects and data, there are many companies that like it. Otherwise, there will be no tens of thousands of people attending the annual Huawei Partner Conference, and a bunch of partners will participate in the show.
In addition, due to the direct entry of Ali, Tencent, Baidu, Ping An Technology, etc., some enterprises began to adjust the internal structure, including Tencent and Haikang. Of course, only large enough companies have room for adjustment.